Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 6–9 February 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
31.7% |
30.2–33.3% |
29.7–33.7% |
29.4–34.1% |
28.7–34.8% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
18.6% |
17.3–19.9% |
17.0–20.3% |
16.7–20.6% |
16.1–21.3% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
15.7% |
14.6–17.0% |
14.3–17.4% |
14.0–17.7% |
13.4–18.3% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
12.1% |
11.0–13.2% |
10.7–13.5% |
10.5–13.8% |
10.0–14.4% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
8.8% |
7.9–9.8% |
7.7–10.1% |
7.4–10.3% |
7.0–10.8% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
8.0% |
7.1–8.9% |
6.9–9.2% |
6.7–9.5% |
6.3–9.9% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.7% |
2.2–3.3% |
2.1–3.5% |
2.0–3.6% |
1.8–3.9% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
1.8% |
1.4–2.3% |
1.3–2.5% |
1.3–2.6% |
1.1–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
99.2% |
99.5% |
Median |
4 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
25% |
100% |
|
2 |
75% |
75% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
81% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
19% |
19% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
25% |
100% |
|
2 |
75% |
75% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
81% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
19% |
19% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 6–9 February 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1493
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.72%