Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 13–16 February 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
31.0% |
29.5–32.5% |
29.1–32.9% |
28.7–33.3% |
28.1–34.0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
17.2% |
16.0–18.4% |
15.7–18.8% |
15.4–19.1% |
14.9–19.7% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
16.2% |
15.0–17.4% |
14.7–17.8% |
14.4–18.1% |
13.9–18.7% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
13.4% |
12.4–14.6% |
12.1–14.9% |
11.8–15.2% |
11.4–15.7% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
8.6% |
7.7–9.6% |
7.5–9.8% |
7.3–10.1% |
6.9–10.5% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
7.3% |
6.5–8.2% |
6.3–8.4% |
6.1–8.7% |
5.7–9.1% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.5% |
2.1–3.1% |
2.0–3.3% |
1.8–3.4% |
1.7–3.7% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
2.1% |
1.7–2.6% |
1.6–2.8% |
1.5–2.9% |
1.3–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
99.1% |
99.9% |
Median |
4 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
38% |
38% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
86% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
14% |
14% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
54% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
46% |
46% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0–1 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
38% |
38% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
54% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
46% |
46% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 13–16 February 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1595
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.69%