Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 20–22 February 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
28.2% |
26.8–29.7% |
26.4–30.1% |
26.0–30.5% |
25.4–31.2% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
18.1% |
16.9–19.4% |
16.5–19.7% |
16.2–20.1% |
15.7–20.7% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
13.9% |
12.8–15.1% |
12.5–15.4% |
12.3–15.7% |
11.8–16.3% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
13.5% |
12.5–14.7% |
12.2–15.0% |
11.9–15.3% |
11.4–15.9% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
10.4% |
9.5–11.4% |
9.2–11.8% |
9.0–12.0% |
8.6–12.5% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
9.1% |
8.3–10.1% |
8.0–10.4% |
7.8–10.7% |
7.4–11.2% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.9% |
2.4–3.5% |
2.3–3.7% |
2.2–3.9% |
2.0–4.2% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
2.2% |
1.8–2.8% |
1.7–2.9% |
1.6–3.1% |
1.4–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
54% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
46% |
46% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
79% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
21% |
21% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
94% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
61% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
39% |
39% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
79% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
21% |
21% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
61% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
39% |
39% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
94% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 20–22 February 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1577
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.23%