Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 28 February–2 March 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
29.0% |
27.5–30.4% |
27.1–30.8% |
26.8–31.2% |
26.1–31.9% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
16.0% |
14.9–17.2% |
14.6–17.6% |
14.3–17.9% |
13.8–18.5% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
15.3% |
14.2–16.5% |
13.9–16.9% |
13.6–17.2% |
13.1–17.7% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
14.3% |
13.2–15.4% |
12.9–15.8% |
12.6–16.0% |
12.1–16.6% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
11.5% |
10.5–12.5% |
10.2–12.8% |
10.0–13.1% |
9.6–13.7% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
7.2% |
6.4–8.1% |
6.2–8.3% |
6.0–8.6% |
5.7–9.0% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
2.4% |
2.0–3.0% |
1.9–3.2% |
1.8–3.3% |
1.6–3.6% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.2% |
1.8–2.7% |
1.7–2.9% |
1.6–3.0% |
1.4–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
1.0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
99.0% |
99.0% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.2% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 28 February–2 March 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1613
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.01%