Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 10–13 March 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
30.2% |
28.4–32.1% |
27.9–32.6% |
27.4–33.1% |
26.6–34.0% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
17.5% |
16.0–19.1% |
15.6–19.6% |
15.3–20.0% |
14.6–20.8% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
14.9% |
13.5–16.4% |
13.2–16.9% |
12.8–17.3% |
12.2–18.0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
13.5% |
12.2–15.0% |
11.8–15.4% |
11.5–15.8% |
10.9–16.5% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
9.2% |
8.1–10.5% |
7.8–10.8% |
7.6–11.2% |
7.1–11.8% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
8.6% |
7.6–9.8% |
7.3–10.2% |
7.0–10.5% |
6.5–11.1% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.9–4.7% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.3% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.8–2.1% |
0.8–2.2% |
0.6–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
9% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
90% |
91% |
Median |
4 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Majority |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
75% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
25% |
25% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.3% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
43% |
100% |
|
1 |
57% |
57% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
74% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
26% |
26% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
74% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
26% |
26% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
43% |
100% |
|
1 |
57% |
57% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 10–13 March 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.15%