Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 9–17 March 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
29.3% |
27.8–30.8% |
27.4–31.2% |
27.1–31.5% |
26.4–32.3% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
16.3% |
15.1–17.5% |
14.8–17.9% |
14.5–18.2% |
14.0–18.8% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
15.7% |
14.6–16.9% |
14.3–17.3% |
14.0–17.6% |
13.5–18.2% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
15.4% |
14.3–16.6% |
14.0–16.9% |
13.7–17.3% |
13.2–17.8% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
11.6% |
10.6–12.7% |
10.3–13.0% |
10.1–13.3% |
9.7–13.8% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
5.9% |
5.2–6.7% |
5.0–6.9% |
4.8–7.1% |
4.5–7.5% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
2.9% |
2.4–3.5% |
2.3–3.7% |
2.2–3.9% |
2.0–4.2% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.6% |
1.2–2.1% |
1.1–2.2% |
1.1–2.3% |
0.9–2.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
1.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
98.9% |
98.9% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.2% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 9–17 March 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1586
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.55%