Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 10–17 April 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) | 4.0% | 24.6% | 22.9–26.4% | 22.4–26.9% | 22.0–27.4% | 21.2–28.3% |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 24.3% | 21.6% | 20.0–23.4% | 19.5–23.8% | 19.2–24.3% | 18.4–25.1% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 22.4% | 17.2% | 15.7–18.8% | 15.3–19.3% | 15.0–19.7% | 14.3–20.5% |
Eesti 200 (RE) | 0.0% | 14.2% | 12.9–15.7% | 12.5–16.1% | 12.2–16.5% | 11.6–17.3% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 13.6% | 9.3% | 8.2–10.6% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.7–11.3% | 7.2–11.9% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 13.9% | 7.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.8–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0.3% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Eesti 200 (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 5% | 100% | |
3 | 95% | 95% | Median |
4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
2 | 66% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
3 | 34% | 34% | |
4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
2 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 29% | 100% | |
2 | 71% | 71% | Median |
3 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0.8% | 100% | |
1 | 99.2% | 99.2% | Last Result, Median |
2 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 10–17 April 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.07%