Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 18–24 April 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
24.4% |
22.7–26.2% |
22.2–26.7% |
21.8–27.2% |
21.0–28.0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
22.1% |
20.5–23.9% |
20.0–24.3% |
19.6–24.8% |
18.9–25.6% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
15.8% |
14.4–17.4% |
14.0–17.8% |
13.7–18.2% |
13.0–19.0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
14.7% |
13.4–16.2% |
13.0–16.7% |
12.6–17.0% |
12.0–17.8% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
9.0% |
7.9–10.3% |
7.6–10.6% |
7.4–10.9% |
6.9–11.6% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
7.8% |
6.8–9.0% |
6.5–9.3% |
6.3–9.6% |
5.9–10.2% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
3.2% |
2.6–4.0% |
2.4–4.3% |
2.3–4.5% |
2.0–4.9% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.4% |
1.2–2.5% |
1.1–2.7% |
0.9–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
87% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
13% |
13% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.1% |
99.9% |
Median |
3 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
92% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
8% |
8% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
34% |
100% |
|
1 |
66% |
66% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2–3 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.1% |
99.9% |
Median |
3 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
34% |
100% |
|
1 |
66% |
66% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 18–24 April 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.81%