Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 2–6 May 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) | 4.0% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 24.3% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 22.4% | 18.6% | 17.1–20.3% | 16.7–20.7% | 16.3–21.1% | 15.6–21.9% |
Eesti 200 (RE) | 0.0% | 13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% | 11.5–15.8% | 10.9–16.5% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 13.6% | 7.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.8–10.1% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 13.9% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.2% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 2 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Eesti 200 (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 13% | 100% | |
3 | 87% | 87% | Median |
4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
2 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
3 | 86% | 86% | Median |
4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
2 | 99.7% | 100% | Median |
3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 71% | 100% | Median |
2 | 29% | 29% | |
3 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
1 | 99.9% | 99.9% | Last Result, Median |
2 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 2% | 100% | |
1 | 98% | 98% | Last Result, Median |
2 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | |:———:|:———–:|:——:|:———:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|:———————–:|
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 2–6 May 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.33%