Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 4–15 May 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
22.8% |
21.0–24.6% |
20.5–25.2% |
20.1–25.7% |
19.3–26.6% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
19.8% |
18.2–21.6% |
17.7–22.1% |
17.3–22.6% |
16.5–23.5% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
15.8% |
14.3–17.5% |
13.9–18.0% |
13.5–18.4% |
12.9–19.2% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
13.9% |
12.5–15.5% |
12.1–15.9% |
11.8–16.3% |
11.1–17.1% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
9.9% |
8.7–11.3% |
8.4–11.7% |
8.1–12.1% |
7.6–12.8% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
8.0% |
6.9–9.3% |
6.6–9.6% |
6.4–10.0% |
5.9–10.6% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.3–3.8% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.0–4.3% |
1.8–4.8% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
3.0% |
2.3–3.8% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.0–4.3% |
1.8–4.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
98.7% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
6% |
100% |
|
2 |
94% |
94% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
95% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
5% |
5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
10% |
100% |
|
1 |
90% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
6% |
100% |
|
2 |
94% |
94% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
10% |
100% |
|
1 |
90% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 4–15 May 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 879
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.02%