Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 7–13 June 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 24.3% 25.9% 24.1–27.9% 23.6–28.5% 23.1–29.0% 22.3–29.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 4.0% 20.0% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.3% 17.5–22.8% 16.7–23.7%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 22.4% 17.0% 15.5–18.7% 15.0–19.2% 14.6–19.6% 13.9–20.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 13.6% 10.0% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.8% 8.2–12.2% 7.6–12.9%
Eesti 200 (RE) 0.0% 10.0% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.8% 8.2–12.2% 7.6–12.9%
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 13.9% 9.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7% 7.2–11.1% 6.7–11.7%
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.3% 1.8–4.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.3% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.0–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 1 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Eesti 200 (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 86% 100% Last Result, Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 16% 100%  
2 84% 84% Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 90% 100% Last Result, Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 74% 74% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Eesti 200 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 82% 82% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 36% 36% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 16% 100%  
2 84% 84% Median
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 36% 36% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 74% 74% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations