Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 10–20 July 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
26.3% |
24.9–27.8% |
24.5–28.2% |
24.1–28.6% |
23.5–29.3% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
20.2% |
18.9–21.6% |
18.5–22.0% |
18.2–22.3% |
17.6–23.0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
16.2% |
15.0–17.5% |
14.7–17.9% |
14.4–18.2% |
13.9–18.8% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
11.5% |
10.5–12.6% |
10.2–13.0% |
10.0–13.2% |
9.5–13.8% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
9.8% |
8.9–10.9% |
8.6–11.2% |
8.4–11.4% |
8.0–12.0% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
8.5% |
7.6–9.5% |
7.4–9.8% |
7.2–10.0% |
6.8–10.5% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
3.5% |
3.0–4.2% |
2.8–4.4% |
2.7–4.6% |
2.4–4.9% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.6% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.0–3.4% |
1.9–3.6% |
1.7–3.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
90% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
10% |
10% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
6% |
100% |
|
2 |
94% |
94% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
98.5% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.8% |
99.8% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
15% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
85% |
85% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
6% |
100% |
|
2 |
94% |
94% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.8% |
99.8% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 10–20 July 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1486
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.84%