Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 24–31 July 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
25.1% |
23.4–26.9% |
22.9–27.4% |
22.5–27.9% |
21.7–28.8% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
20.2% |
18.6–21.9% |
18.2–22.4% |
17.8–22.8% |
17.1–23.6% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
19.1% |
17.6–20.8% |
17.1–21.2% |
16.8–21.7% |
16.1–22.5% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
12.0% |
10.8–13.4% |
10.4–13.8% |
10.1–14.2% |
9.6–14.9% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
9.4% |
8.3–10.7% |
8.0–11.1% |
7.7–11.4% |
7.3–12.0% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
9.0% |
7.9–10.3% |
7.6–10.6% |
7.4–10.9% |
6.9–11.6% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.7% |
2.1–3.5% |
2.0–3.7% |
1.9–3.9% |
1.6–4.3% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.9–2.5% |
0.7–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
22% |
100% |
|
2 |
78% |
78% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
52% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
48% |
48% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.2% |
99.2% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
53% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
47% |
47% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
74% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
26% |
26% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
22% |
100% |
|
2 |
78% |
78% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.2% |
99.2% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
53% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
47% |
47% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 24–31 July 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.22%