Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 10–16 August 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
25.3% |
23.9–26.8% |
23.5–27.2% |
23.2–27.6% |
22.5–28.3% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
17.6% |
16.4–18.9% |
16.0–19.3% |
15.8–19.6% |
15.2–20.3% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
17.0% |
15.8–18.3% |
15.5–18.7% |
15.2–19.0% |
14.6–19.6% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
13.8% |
12.7–15.0% |
12.4–15.3% |
12.1–15.6% |
11.6–16.2% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
10.6% |
9.6–11.7% |
9.3–12.0% |
9.1–12.2% |
8.7–12.8% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
7.4% |
6.6–8.4% |
6.4–8.6% |
6.2–8.9% |
5.8–9.3% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
4.1% |
3.5–4.8% |
3.3–5.0% |
3.2–5.2% |
2.9–5.6% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.7% |
2.2–3.3% |
2.1–3.5% |
2.0–3.6% |
1.8–3.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
84% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
16% |
16% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
43% |
100% |
|
2 |
57% |
57% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
76% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
24% |
24% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.2% |
99.2% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
3% |
3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
43% |
100% |
|
2 |
57% |
57% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.2% |
99.2% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 10–16 August 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1494
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.17%