Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 21–28 August 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
27.2% |
25.5–29.1% |
25.0–29.6% |
24.5–30.0% |
23.7–31.0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
22.5% |
20.9–24.3% |
20.4–24.8% |
20.0–25.2% |
19.3–26.1% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
16.6% |
15.2–18.2% |
14.8–18.6% |
14.4–19.0% |
13.8–19.8% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
11.2% |
10.0–12.6% |
9.7–13.0% |
9.4–13.3% |
8.9–14.0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
10.5% |
9.3–11.8% |
9.0–12.2% |
8.7–12.6% |
8.2–13.2% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
7.6% |
6.6–8.8% |
6.3–9.1% |
6.1–9.4% |
5.7–10.0% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
2.7% |
2.1–3.5% |
2.0–3.7% |
1.9–3.9% |
1.6–4.3% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
85% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
15% |
15% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.3% |
99.3% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
15% |
100% |
|
1 |
85% |
85% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.1% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.3% |
99.3% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
15% |
100% |
|
1 |
85% |
85% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 21–28 August 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.89%