Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 31 August–10 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
23.0% |
21.3–24.9% |
20.8–25.4% |
20.4–25.9% |
19.6–26.8% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
20.0% |
18.3–21.8% |
17.9–22.3% |
17.5–22.7% |
16.7–23.6% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
18.0% |
16.4–19.7% |
16.0–20.2% |
15.6–20.6% |
14.8–21.5% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
14.0% |
12.6–15.6% |
12.2–16.1% |
11.9–16.5% |
11.3–17.3% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
10.0% |
8.8–11.4% |
8.5–11.8% |
8.2–12.1% |
7.7–12.8% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
5.9% |
5.0–7.1% |
4.8–7.4% |
4.6–7.7% |
4.2–8.3% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–5.0% |
3.1–5.3% |
2.9–5.5% |
2.6–6.1% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.8% |
1.4–3.0% |
1.3–3.2% |
1.1–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.2% |
99.8% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
12% |
100% |
|
2 |
88% |
88% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
73% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
27% |
27% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
16% |
100% |
|
1 |
84% |
84% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
12% |
100% |
|
2 |
88% |
88% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
16% |
100% |
|
1 |
84% |
84% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 31 August–10 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 891
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.59%