Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 14–20 September 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
24.2% |
22.8–25.7% |
22.4–26.1% |
22.1–26.5% |
21.5–27.2% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
20.6% |
19.3–22.0% |
18.9–22.4% |
18.6–22.7% |
18.0–23.4% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
16.4% |
15.3–17.7% |
14.9–18.1% |
14.6–18.4% |
14.1–19.0% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
12.8% |
11.8–14.0% |
11.5–14.3% |
11.2–14.6% |
10.7–15.2% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
11.9% |
10.9–13.0% |
10.6–13.3% |
10.3–13.6% |
9.9–14.2% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
7.3% |
6.5–8.2% |
6.3–8.5% |
6.1–8.7% |
5.7–9.2% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
4.1% |
3.5–4.8% |
3.3–5.0% |
3.2–5.2% |
2.9–5.6% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.2% |
1.8–2.8% |
1.7–3.0% |
1.6–3.1% |
1.4–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.4% |
99.4% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.4% |
99.4% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 14–20 September 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1491
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.98%