Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 26 September–2 October 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
23.2% |
21.6–25.0% |
21.1–25.5% |
20.7–25.9% |
19.9–26.8% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
21.8% |
20.2–23.5% |
19.7–24.0% |
19.3–24.5% |
18.6–25.3% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
18.0% |
16.5–19.6% |
16.1–20.1% |
15.7–20.5% |
15.1–21.3% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
14.4% |
13.1–15.9% |
12.7–16.3% |
12.4–16.7% |
11.7–17.5% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
10.2% |
9.1–11.5% |
8.7–11.9% |
8.5–12.2% |
8.0–12.9% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
6.8% |
5.9–7.9% |
5.6–8.3% |
5.4–8.5% |
5.0–9.1% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
3.2% |
2.6–4.0% |
2.4–4.3% |
2.3–4.5% |
2.0–4.9% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
1.8% |
1.4–2.5% |
1.2–2.7% |
1.1–2.8% |
1.0–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.5% |
99.8% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
2% |
100% |
|
2 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
82% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
18% |
18% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
17% |
100% |
|
1 |
83% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
2% |
100% |
|
2 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
82% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
18% |
18% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
17% |
100% |
|
1 |
83% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 26 September–2 October 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.95%