Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 28 September–6 October 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
23.0% |
21.2–24.9% |
20.7–25.4% |
20.3–25.9% |
19.5–26.8% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
19.0% |
17.4–20.8% |
16.9–21.3% |
16.5–21.7% |
15.8–22.6% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
16.0% |
14.5–17.7% |
14.1–18.2% |
13.8–18.6% |
13.1–19.4% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
14.0% |
12.6–15.6% |
12.2–16.0% |
11.9–16.4% |
11.2–17.2% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
10.0% |
8.8–11.4% |
8.5–11.8% |
8.2–12.2% |
7.7–12.9% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
8.0% |
6.9–9.3% |
6.6–9.6% |
6.4–10.0% |
5.9–10.6% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.2–5.0% |
3.0–5.2% |
2.9–5.5% |
2.6–6.0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.8% |
1.4–3.0% |
1.3–3.2% |
1.1–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
98% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
13% |
100% |
|
2 |
87% |
87% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
92% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
8% |
8% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
8% |
100% |
|
1 |
92% |
92% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
89% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
11% |
11% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
13% |
100% |
|
2 |
87% |
87% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
92% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
8% |
8% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
8% |
100% |
|
1 |
92% |
92% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 28 September–6 October 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 879
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.36%