Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 13–18 October 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
19.7% |
18.4–21.1% |
18.1–21.5% |
17.8–21.8% |
17.2–22.5% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
18.5% |
17.3–19.9% |
16.9–20.2% |
16.6–20.6% |
16.0–21.2% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
17.4% |
16.2–18.7% |
15.9–19.1% |
15.6–19.4% |
15.0–20.1% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
14.8% |
13.7–16.0% |
13.4–16.4% |
13.1–16.7% |
12.6–17.3% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
14.3% |
13.2–15.5% |
12.8–15.8% |
12.6–16.1% |
12.1–16.8% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
7.2% |
6.4–8.1% |
6.2–8.4% |
6.0–8.6% |
5.6–9.1% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) |
0.0% |
4.1% |
3.5–4.8% |
3.3–5.1% |
3.2–5.2% |
2.9–5.6% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.3% |
2.8% |
2.3–3.5% |
2.2–3.6% |
2.1–3.8% |
1.9–4.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
4% |
100% |
|
2 |
96% |
96% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
24% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
76% |
76% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
74% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
26% |
26% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.0% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
74% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
26% |
26% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
24% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
76% |
76% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 13–18 October 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1486
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.11%