Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 16–22 November 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 13.9% 24.8% 23.4–26.3% 23.0–26.7% 22.7–27.1% 22.1–27.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 4.0% 20.6% 19.3–22.0% 18.9–22.4% 18.6–22.7% 18.0–23.4%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 24.3% 16.1% 15.0–17.4% 14.6–17.8% 14.4–18.1% 13.8–18.7%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 22.4% 13.4% 12.3–14.6% 12.0–14.9% 11.8–15.2% 11.2–15.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 13.6% 12.9% 11.9–14.1% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.7% 10.8–15.3%
Eesti 200 (RE) 0.0% 6.3% 5.5–7.2% 5.3–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 4.8–8.1%
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) 0.0% 3.3% 2.8–4.0% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.3% 2.1% 1.7–2.6% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–2.9% 1.3–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 2 2 2 2 2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 2 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 1 1 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti 200 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 99.8% 100% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.6% Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.8% 100% Median
2 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (*) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.6% Median
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 99.8% 100% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations