Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 18–25 January 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 13.9% | 24.9% | 23.1–26.8% | 22.6–27.4% | 22.1–27.9% | 21.3–28.8% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 13.6% | 18.0% | 16.4–19.8% | 16.0–20.3% | 15.6–20.7% | 14.9–21.6% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) | 4.0% | 15.9% | 14.4–17.6% | 14.0–18.1% | 13.7–18.5% | 13.0–19.4% |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 24.3% | 15.9% | 14.4–17.6% | 14.0–18.1% | 13.7–18.5% | 13.0–19.4% |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 22.4% | 11.9% | 10.6–13.4% | 10.3–13.9% | 9.9–14.3% | 9.3–15.0% |
| Eesti 200 (RE) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.3–7.1% |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| Koos (*) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 1.0–3.5% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 1 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 1 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eesti 200 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Koos (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 61% | 61% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 12% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 99.8% | 99.8% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Koos (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 1 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 1 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 12% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 61% | 61% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 18–25 January 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 872
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.36%