Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 14–20 March 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
13.6% |
21.4% |
19.9–23.0% |
19.5–23.5% |
19.1–23.9% |
18.4–24.7% |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
24.3% |
18.9% |
17.5–20.5% |
17.1–20.9% |
16.8–21.3% |
16.1–22.1% |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
13.9% |
16.7% |
15.4–18.2% |
15.0–18.7% |
14.7–19.0% |
14.1–19.8% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
4.0% |
15.4% |
14.1–16.9% |
13.7–17.3% |
13.4–17.6% |
12.8–18.4% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
22.4% |
13.9% |
12.7–15.3% |
12.3–15.7% |
12.0–16.1% |
11.4–16.8% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.9% |
5.1–6.9% |
4.9–7.2% |
4.7–7.4% |
4.3–7.9% |
Eesti 200 (RE) |
0.0% |
5.6% |
4.8–6.6% |
4.6–6.9% |
4.4–7.1% |
4.1–7.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.6% |
99.7% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
12% |
100% |
|
2 |
88% |
88% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
89% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
11% |
11% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti 200 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1–2 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.6% |
99.7% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
89% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
11% |
11% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 14–20 March 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1135
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.48%