Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 11–15 April 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 13.6% 22.0% 21.1–22.9% 20.9–23.2% 20.7–23.4% 20.2–23.9%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 24.3% 20.1% 19.3–21.0% 19.0–21.3% 18.8–21.5% 18.4–21.9%
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 13.9% 17.6% 16.8–18.5% 16.6–18.7% 16.4–18.9% 16.0–19.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 4.0% 17.2% 16.4–18.0% 16.2–18.3% 16.0–18.5% 15.6–18.9%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 22.4% 11.0% 10.3–11.7% 10.2–11.9% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4%
Eesti 200 (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.6–5.5% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 4.7% 4.3–5.2% 4.2–5.3% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.3% 1.2% 1.0–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 2 2 2 2 2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 2 2 2 2 2 1–2
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 1 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti 200 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 100% 100% Median

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 99.0% 99.0% Last Result, Median
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 100% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 1 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 100% 100% Median

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 100% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations