Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 8–17 April 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 13.6% 20.0% 18.7–21.4% 18.4–21.8% 18.1–22.1% 17.5–22.8%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 24.3% 18.8% 17.5–20.1% 17.2–20.5% 16.9–20.9% 16.3–21.5%
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 13.9% 16.8% 15.6–18.1% 15.3–18.4% 15.0–18.8% 14.4–19.4%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 22.4% 13.8% 12.7–15.0% 12.4–15.4% 12.1–15.7% 11.6–16.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 4.0% 13.8% 12.7–15.0% 12.4–15.4% 12.1–15.7% 11.6–16.3%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.8%
Eesti 200 (RE) 0.0% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.3% 1.5% 1.1–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.2% 0.8–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 2 2 2 2 1–2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 2 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 1 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.5% 100% Last Result
2 98.5% 98.5% Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Last Result, Median
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 90% 100% Last Result, Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 1 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.5% 100% Last Result
2 98.5% 98.5% Median
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 90% 100% Last Result, Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations