Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 10–17 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 27.1% 25.7–28.6% 25.3–29.0% 25.0–29.4% 24.3–30.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 17.5% 16.3–18.8% 15.9–19.1% 15.7–19.4% 15.1–20.1%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 16.0% 14.8–17.2% 14.5–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.7–18.5%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 14.1% 13.0–15.3% 12.7–15.6% 12.4–15.9% 11.9–16.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 12.8% 11.8–13.9% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.5% 10.7–15.1%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 8.4% 7.6–9.4% 7.3–9.7% 7.1–9.9% 6.8–10.4%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.2% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.7–3.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1%
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 66% 100% Median
3 34% 34%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 50% 100%  
2 50% 50% Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 100% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 16% 16%  
2 0% 0%  

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 51% 100% Median
3 49% 49%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 50% 100%  
2 50% 50% Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations