Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 1–5 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 13.9% 33.7% 31.8–35.7% 31.3–36.2% 30.8–36.7% 29.9–37.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 13.6% 15.4% 14.0–16.9% 13.6–17.4% 13.3–17.8% 12.7–18.5%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 24.3% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 22.4% 12.2% 11.0–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.7–15.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 4.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.3% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 1 3 3 3 3 3–4
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 2 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 1 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 99.3% 100% Median
4 0.7% 0.7% Majority
5 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 99.0% 99.0% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 1 3 0.7% 3 3 3 3–4
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 1 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 99.3% 100% Median
4 0.7% 0.7% Majority
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 99.0% 99.0% Median
2 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations