Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 11–17 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 27.5% 26.1–29.0% 25.7–29.4% 25.3–29.8% 24.6–30.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 17.1% 15.9–18.4% 15.6–18.8% 15.3–19.1% 14.8–19.8%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.6% 14.2–17.9% 13.7–18.6%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 13.8% 12.7–15.0% 12.4–15.4% 12.2–15.7% 11.7–16.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 12.6% 11.6–13.8% 11.3–14.1% 11.1–14.4% 10.6–15.0%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 5.4% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.5% 4.4–6.7% 4.1–7.1%
Koos (*) 0.0% 2.9% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.2%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.2% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.5% 1.7–3.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Koos (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 37% 100%  
3 63% 63% Median
4 0% 0% Majority

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 66% 100% Median
2 34% 34%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Koos (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 37% 100%  
3 63% 63% Median
4 0% 0% Majority

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 66% 100% Median
2 34% 34%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations