Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 5–11 August 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
0.0% |
27.1% |
25.3–29.0% |
24.9–29.5% |
24.4–29.9% |
23.6–30.8% |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
0.0% |
20.1% |
18.5–21.8% |
18.1–22.3% |
17.7–22.7% |
17.0–23.5% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
0.0% |
17.9% |
16.4–19.5% |
16.0–20.0% |
15.6–20.4% |
15.0–21.2% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
0.0% |
12.1% |
10.9–13.5% |
10.5–13.9% |
10.2–14.3% |
9.7–15.0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) |
0.0% |
11.6% |
10.4–13.0% |
10.0–13.4% |
9.8–13.7% |
9.2–14.4% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.2% |
5.3–7.3% |
5.1–7.6% |
4.9–7.9% |
4.5–8.4% |
Eesti 200 (EPP) |
0.0% |
3.3% |
2.7–4.1% |
2.5–4.4% |
2.4–4.6% |
2.1–5.0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
88% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
12% |
12% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
21% |
100% |
|
2 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
89% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
11% |
11% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.5% |
99.5% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
98.7% |
98.7% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti 200 (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0–1 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
88% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
12% |
12% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
89% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
11% |
11% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
98.7% |
98.7% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 5–11 August 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.49%