Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 26 August–1 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 29.4% 27.6–31.4% 27.1–31.9% 26.6–32.4% 25.8–33.3%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.6–22.9% 18.2–23.4% 17.5–24.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 17.0% 15.6–18.7% 15.2–19.2% 14.8–19.6% 14.1–20.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.3% 9.6–13.6% 9.0–14.3%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.3% 9.6–13.6% 9.0–14.3%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.6–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 42% 100%  
3 58% 58% Median
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 44% 100%  
2 56% 56% Median
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 90% 90% Median
2 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 42% 100%  
3 58% 58% Median
4 0% 0% Majority

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 90% 90% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations