Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 2–8 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 29.0% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 20.2% 18.6–21.9% 18.2–22.4% 17.8–22.8% 17.1–23.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.8–13.9%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Koos (*) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Koos (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 83% 100% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 89% 89% Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 94% 94% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Koos (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 83% 100% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 94% 94% Median
2 0% 0%  

Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations