Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 29 August–12 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.7% | 21.0–24.6% | 20.5–25.1% | 20.1–25.6% | 19.3–26.5% |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0.0% | 17.7% | 16.2–19.5% | 15.7–20.0% | 15.4–20.4% | 14.6–21.3% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.8% | 14.3–17.5% | 13.9–18.0% | 13.6–18.4% | 12.9–19.2% |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0.0% | 12.9% | 11.5–14.4% | 11.2–14.9% | 10.8–15.3% | 10.2–16.0% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0.0% | 11.9% | 10.6–13.4% | 10.2–13.8% | 9.9–14.2% | 9.3–14.9% |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.5–7.6% | 4.1–8.2% |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.5–7.6% | 4.1–8.2% |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.1–4.1% | 2.0–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| Koos (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Koos (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 7% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 27% | 100% | |
| 2 | 73% | 73% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 20% | 20% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200 (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Koos (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 7% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 20% | 20% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 29 August–12 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 885
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.97%