Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 12–18 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 24.5% 23.1–25.9% 22.7–26.3% 22.4–26.7% 21.7–27.4%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 18.1% 16.9–19.4% 16.6–19.8% 16.3–20.1% 15.7–20.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 16.0% 14.8–17.2% 14.5–17.6% 14.2–17.9% 13.7–18.5%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 13.9% 12.8–15.1% 12.5–15.4% 12.3–15.7% 11.8–16.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 9.5% 8.6–10.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.2–11.1% 7.8–11.6%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.6–6.1% 4.4–6.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.0–6.9%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 3.9% 3.4–4.6% 3.2–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.8–5.4%
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0.0% 3.6% 3.1–4.3% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.5–5.0%
Koos (*) 0.0% 3.2% 2.7–3.9% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.2% 2.2–4.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Koos (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 88% 100% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 90% 90% Median
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 92% 100% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 91% 91% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Koos (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 88% 100% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 92% 100% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 91% 91% Median
2 0% 0%  

Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations