Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 21–28 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 30.9% 29.1–32.8% 28.5–33.4% 28.1–33.8% 27.3–34.8%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 16.4% 15.0–18.0% 14.6–18.4% 14.2–18.8% 13.6–19.6%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.6–17.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 12.3% 11.1–13.7% 10.7–14.1% 10.4–14.5% 9.8–15.2%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Koos (*) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 3 3 3 3 2–3
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Koos (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 99.2% 99.2% Median
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.2% 100% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Koos (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 99.2% 99.2% Median
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations