Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 24–30 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 24.9% 23.2–26.9% 22.6–27.4% 22.2–27.9% 21.4–28.8%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 18.0% 16.4–19.8% 16.0–20.2% 15.6–20.7% 14.9–21.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 16.0% 14.5–17.7% 14.1–18.1% 13.7–18.5% 13.0–19.4%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 14.0% 12.6–15.6% 12.2–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.2–17.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 10.0% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8% 8.2–12.1% 7.6–12.8%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Koos (*) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Koos (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 81% 100% Median
3 19% 19%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 25% 100%  
2 75% 75% Median
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 78% 100% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 100% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 83% 83% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Koos (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 81% 100% Median
3 19% 19%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 78% 100% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 83% 83% Median
2 0% 0%  

Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations