Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 11–17 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) |
0.0% |
27.5% |
25.7–29.4% |
25.2–29.9% |
24.8–30.4% |
24.0–31.3% |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) |
0.0% |
18.0% |
16.5–19.6% |
16.1–20.1% |
15.7–20.5% |
15.1–21.3% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
0.0% |
15.2% |
13.8–16.8% |
13.4–17.2% |
13.1–17.6% |
12.5–18.3% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) |
0.0% |
13.4% |
12.1–14.9% |
11.7–15.3% |
11.4–15.7% |
10.8–16.4% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) |
0.0% |
12.3% |
11.1–13.7% |
10.7–14.1% |
10.4–14.5% |
9.8–15.2% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.3% |
4.5–6.3% |
4.3–6.6% |
4.1–6.9% |
3.7–7.4% |
Eesti 200 (EPP) |
0.0% |
3.8% |
3.1–4.7% |
2.9–5.0% |
2.8–5.2% |
2.5–5.6% |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) |
0.0% |
2.2% |
1.7–2.9% |
1.6–3.1% |
1.4–3.3% |
1.2–3.7% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.8% |
0.8–1.9% |
0.7–2.1% |
0.5–2.4% |
Koos (*) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.3–1.3% |
0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
47% |
100% |
|
3 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
54% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
46% |
46% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.0% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti 200 (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Koos (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) |
0 |
3 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1–2 |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
47% |
100% |
|
3 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.0% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 11–17 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.00%