Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 9–15 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 25.5% 23.8–27.3% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–19.0%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–19.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 14.7% 13.4–16.2% 13.0–16.7% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
Koos (*) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Koos (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 54% 100% Median
3 46% 46%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 79% 100% Median
2 21% 21%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 75% 100% Median
2 25% 25%  
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Koos (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 54% 100% Median
3 46% 46%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 79% 100% Median
2 21% 21%  
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations