Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 7–16 February 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.9% | 21.7–26.5% | 21.3–26.9% | 20.5–27.9% |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.4–19.7% | 16.0–20.2% | 15.6–20.6% | 14.8–21.5% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.6–16.7% | 13.2–17.1% | 12.8–17.5% | 12.2–18.4% |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.6–16.7% | 13.2–17.1% | 12.8–17.5% | 12.2–18.4% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.7–14.6% | 11.3–15.0% | 11.0–15.4% | 10.3–16.2% |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.6–9.6% | 6.4–9.9% | 5.9–10.6% |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.3% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.1% |
| Koos (*) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.6% |
| Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Koos (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 73% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 27% | 27% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 46% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200 (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Koos (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 62% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 38% | 38% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eestimaa Ühendatud Vasakpartei (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7–16 February 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 891
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.79%