Opinion Poll by Norstat for Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 25 February–2 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.1–22.3% 17.7–22.7% 17.0–23.5%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 14.2% 12.9–15.7% 12.5–16.1% 12.2–16.5% 11.6–17.3%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 13.4% 12.1–14.9% 11.7–15.3% 11.4–15.7% 10.8–16.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.3% 7.9–11.6% 7.4–12.2%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Koos (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Koos (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 92% 92% Median
4 0.3% 0.3% Majority
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 38% 100%  
2 62% 62% Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 46% 46%  
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Koos (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 3 0.3% 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 92% 92% Median
4 0.3% 0.3% Majority
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 38% 100%  
2 62% 62% Median
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 46% 46%  
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations