Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 12–18 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 26.7% 25.0–28.5% 24.5–29.1% 24.1–29.5% 23.2–30.4%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 17.8% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.5–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 16.1% 14.7–17.7% 14.3–18.1% 13.9–18.5% 13.3–19.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–19.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.8%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 55% 100% Median
3 45% 45%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 55% 100% Median
2 45% 45%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 94% 100% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 100% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.8% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 55% 100% Median
3 45% 45%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 100% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.8% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations