Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 9–15 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 28.7% 26.9–30.6% 26.4–31.1% 26.0–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 16.8% 15.4–18.4% 15.0–18.9% 14.6–19.2% 13.9–20.0%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 10.4% 9.3–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.1–13.1%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 47% 100%  
3 53% 53% Median
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 45% 100%  
2 55% 55% Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 100% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98.8% 100% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 86% 86% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 47% 100%  
3 53% 53% Median
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 45% 100%  
2 55% 55% Median
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 86% 86% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations