Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 16–22 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 29.8% 28.0–31.7% 27.5–32.3% 27.0–32.7% 26.2–33.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 15.7% 14.3–17.3% 13.9–17.7% 13.6–18.1% 12.9–18.9%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.8–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 30% 100%  
3 70% 70% Median
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 68% 100% Median
2 32% 32%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.7% 100% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 30% 100%  
3 70% 70% Median
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 68% 100% Median
2 32% 32%  
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations