Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 10–17 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 22.3% 21.0–23.7% 20.6–24.1% 20.3–24.4% 19.7–25.1%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 17.0% 15.9–18.3% 15.5–18.6% 15.3–18.9% 14.7–19.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 16.2% 15.1–17.5% 14.8–17.8% 14.5–18.1% 13.9–18.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 15.3% 14.2–16.5% 13.9–16.9% 13.6–17.2% 13.1–17.8%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 14.1% 13.0–15.2% 12.7–15.6% 12.5–15.9% 11.9–16.4%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 7.6% 6.8–8.5% 6.6–8.8% 6.4–9.0% 6.0–9.5%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 3.1% 2.6–3.7% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.0–2.7%
Koos (*) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Koos (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.1% 100% Median
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 33% 100%  
2 67% 67% Median
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 81% 100% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 95% 100% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.7% 100% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Koos (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 90% 100% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 95% 100% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 81% 100% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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