Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 4–9 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 26.0% 24.2–28.0% 23.7–28.5% 23.3–29.0% 22.4–30.0%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 16.9% 15.4–18.7% 15.0–19.1% 14.6–19.6% 13.9–20.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 13.0% 11.7–14.6% 11.3–15.0% 11.0–15.4% 10.3–16.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 11.7–14.6% 11.3–15.0% 11.0–15.4% 10.3–16.2%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.5% 9.4–12.9% 9.1–13.2% 8.6–14.0%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 10.0% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.8% 8.2–12.1% 7.7–12.8%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.2% 1.1–3.6%
Koos (*) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%
Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Koos (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 94% 100% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 100% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 91% 91% Median
2 0% 0%  

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Koos (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 3 0.8% 3 3 2–3 2–4
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 96% 97% Median
4 0.8% 0.8% Majority
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations