Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 6–9 October 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.3–22.8% | 18.8–23.3% | 18.4–23.7% | 17.6–24.6% |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.4–19.7% | 16.0–20.2% | 15.6–20.6% | 14.9–21.5% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.5–16.6% | 13.1–17.0% | 12.8–17.5% | 12.1–18.2% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.6–15.5% | 12.2–16.0% | 11.9–16.4% | 11.2–17.2% |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.6–14.5% | 11.2–15.0% | 10.9–15.3% | 10.3–16.1% |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.5–10.7% | 7.3–11.0% | 6.8–11.7% |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| Koos (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Koos (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 55% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 45% | 45% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.4% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200 (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Koos (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 48% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.4% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–9 October 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 902
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.51%