Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 3–9 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0.0% | 30.4% | 28.6–32.3% | 28.1–32.9% | 27.6–33.3% | 26.8–34.2% |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0.0% | 21.4% | 19.8–23.1% | 19.4–23.6% | 19.0–24.1% | 18.2–24.9% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0.0% | 13.4% | 12.1–14.9% | 11.7–15.3% | 11.4–15.7% | 10.8–16.4% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.2% | 11.9–14.7% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.2–15.4% | 10.7–16.2% |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0.0% | 10.9% | 9.7–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.1–13.0% | 8.6–13.7% |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 42% | 42% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 23% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.8% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 81% | 81% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200 (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0.1% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 42% | 42% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.9% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.8% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 3–9 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.82%