Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 24–30 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 28.2% 26.4–30.1% 25.9–30.6% 25.5–31.1% 24.7–32.0%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 16.3% 14.9–17.9% 14.5–18.3% 14.1–18.7% 13.5–19.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 15.6% 14.2–17.2% 13.8–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.8–18.7%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.7–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 68% 100% Median
3 32% 32%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 10% 100%  
2 90% 90% Median
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.5% 100% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 76% 76% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 68% 100% Median
3 32% 32%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.5% 100% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations