Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 1–3 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 31.4% 29.6–33.3% 29.0–33.9% 28.6–34.4% 27.7–35.3%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 19.5% 18.0–21.2% 17.5–21.7% 17.2–22.1% 16.4–22.9%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 11.9–15.5% 11.6–15.9% 11.0–16.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.5–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.8–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 94% 95% Median
4 0.1% 0.1% Majority
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 68% 68% Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 3 0.6% 3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 94% 95% Median
4 0.6% 0.6% Majority
5 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations