Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 26–31 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0.0% 27.9% 26.1–29.8% 25.6–30.3% 25.2–30.8% 24.4–31.7%
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0.0% 21.9% 20.3–23.7% 19.8–24.1% 19.4–24.6% 18.7–25.4%
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0.0% 15.3% 13.9–16.8% 13.5–17.3% 13.2–17.7% 12.6–18.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0.0% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.5–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0.0% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0.0% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
Eesti Keskerakond (RE) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Eesti Reformierakond (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 95% 100% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 98.9% 98.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti 200 (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 2–3 2–3
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 0–1
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 95% 100% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 98.9% 98.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations