Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for ERR, 9–18 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0.0% | 24.2% | 22.8–25.7% | 22.5–26.1% | 22.1–26.4% | 21.5–27.2% |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0.0% | 22.8% | 21.4–24.2% | 21.0–24.6% | 20.7–25.0% | 20.1–25.7% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.9–15.2% | 12.6–15.5% | 12.3–15.8% | 11.8–16.4% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0.0% | 13.8% | 12.7–15.0% | 12.4–15.3% | 12.1–15.6% | 11.6–16.2% |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.0–13.2% | 10.7–13.5% | 10.5–13.7% | 10.0–14.3% |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.9% |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.7% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.3–3.3% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.2% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.0–2.8% |
| Koos (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Eesti Keskerakond (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eesti Reformierakond (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Koos (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Eesti Keskerakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Eesti Reformierakond (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti 200 (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Koos (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koos (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Erakond Isamaa (EPP) – Erakond Parempoolsed (EPP) – Eesti 200 (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vasakliit (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): ERR
- Fieldwork period: 9–18 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1515
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.10%